QuantDuck
0x2637aa568f566ed850650bb757d072c3055926e1
- Realised P&L
- $3.3k
- Volume
- $535.4k
- Markets traded
- 191
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded191
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.653 | 0.795 | $556.49 | +$99.50 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes | 0.558 | 0.685 | $417.90 | +$77.64 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.355 | $320.50 | −$4.51 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.713 | 0.992 | $297.60 | +$83.70 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.345 | $207.00 | −$18.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.620 | $186.00 | +$21.00 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.885 | $177.00 | +$11.00 |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.044 | $62.65 | −$222.73 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · No | 0.202 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$107.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.372US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.140Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$1.1kat 0.369Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.440US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.547Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 15:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | BUY | 0.55 | $165.00 |
| 10-30 08:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $145.02 |
| 10-30 08:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $180.00 |
| 10-29 23:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.53 | $13.25 |
| 10-29 23:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.53 | $13.25 |
| 10-29 23:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.53 | $13.25 |
| 10-29 23:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.53 | $67.31 |
| 10-29 23:30 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.52 | $4.20 |
| 10-29 23:28 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.004096425 | $1.64 |
| 10-29 23:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.713 | $213.90 |
| 10-29 07:29 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.9780283338 | $586.81 |
| 10-28 00:19 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.43 | $129.00 |
| 10-27 20:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.32 | $96.00 |
| 10-25 23:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $258.00 |
| 10-12 12:18 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $166.00 |