idt
0x260cfa64ab4a985f2dd82b0a06a10ea72fb57f00
- Realised P&L
- $24.00
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $208.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · Yes | 0.696 | 0.658 | $192.80 | −$11.10 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.015 | $15.50 | −$13.50 |
| Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · Yes | 0.738 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.34 |
| Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · Yes | 0.831 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.10at 0.515Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$12.78at 0.634Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$12.59at 0.664Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$11.07at 0.510Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
- +$6.95at 0.520Will "AI" be said 45+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 19:05 | Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | BUY | 0.5 | $11.30 |
| 08-29 23:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | SELL | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 08-29 23:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | BUY | 0.61 | $3.05 |
| 08-29 14:04 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-29? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.40 |
| 08-29 13:59 | Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-08-29? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.10 |
| 08-08 08:33 | Will no episode air? | BUY | 0.0045317176 | $1.00 |
| 08-08 01:31 | Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.68 | $4.42 |
| 08-08 01:31 | Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.65 | $20.15 |
| 07-24 21:20 | Will "Miracle" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.91 | $7.28 |
| 07-22 20:13 | Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? | BUY | 0.949 | $12.61 |
| 07-06 13:27 | OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? | BUY | 0.695 | $17.77 |
| 06-19 09:24 | Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.25 |
| 06-19 09:23 | Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 06-19 09:22 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.947 | $21.95 |
| 06-19 09:22 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.948 | $11.38 |