agentgub
0x25f93824f196503a472b6c8c001abe750231b79b
- Realised P&L
- $-12.96
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $300.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · No | 0.636 | 0.974 | $190.84 | +$66.19 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.155 | $53.75 | −$2.48 |
| Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27? · No | 0.740 | 0.760 | $38.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government? · No | 0.987 | 0.970 | $17.56 | −$0.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.99at 0.850Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$4.37at 0.776Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
- +$1.51at 0.030Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
- +$-6.94at 0.163Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
- +$-19.89at 0.170Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 17:43 | Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.987 | $5.56 |
| 09-26 17:38 | Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government? | BUY | 0.987 | $12.31 |
| 09-22 18:05 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $34.47 |
| 09-21 17:47 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $8.68 |
| 09-20 20:00 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.55 |
| 09-20 16:23 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 09-20 16:20 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 09-20 16:19 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $16.50 |
| 09-20 16:19 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 09-20 16:17 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $4.48 |
| 09-20 16:09 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 16:09 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 16:03 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-20 16:03 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 09-20 16:03 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.25 |