pollerer
0x25f746d98d9e9af0cf45c83de04b915c334a9d55
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $521.09
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar22.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Houston be 70°F or higher on October 22? · No | 0.490 | 1.000 | $59.97 | +$30.57 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 22? · No | 0.490 | 1.000 | $59.97 | +$30.57 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C or higher on October 22? · No | 0.490 | 1.000 | $59.97 | +$30.57 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on October 21? · No | 0.490 | 0.995 | $59.70 | +$30.30 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on October 23? · No | 0.490 | 0.995 | $59.67 | +$30.27 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Austin be 66°F or higher on October 23? · No | 0.490 | 0.990 | $59.37 | +$29.97 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 12°C or higher on October 23? · No | 0.490 | 0.990 | $59.37 | +$29.97 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on October 21? · No | 0.490 | 0.995 | $58.70 | +$29.79 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or higher on October 21? · No | 0.490 | 0.740 | $44.37 | +$14.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$86.33at 0.390Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on September 23?
- +$70.00at 0.290Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on September 27?
- +$70.00at 0.290Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or higher on September 27?
- +$70.00at 0.290Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 12°C or higher on September 27?
- +$60.96at 0.490Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 15°C or higher on October 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 04:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or higher on September 26? | SELL | 0.99 | $59.40 |
| 09-24 00:47 | Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on September 25? | SELL | 0.99 | $59.40 |
| 09-23 03:45 | Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 18°C or higher on September 24? | SELL | 0.99 | $59.40 |
| 09-22 12:41 | Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on September 24? | SELL | 0.99 | $29.70 |
| 09-22 12:38 | Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on September 24? | SELL | 0.99 | $69.30 |
| 09-22 00:44 | Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on September 23? | SELL | 0.99 | $142.56 |
| 09-20 16:40 | Will the lowest temperature in Mexico City be 5°C or below on September 22? | SELL | 0.99 | $118.80 |
| 09-19 13:36 | Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C or higher on September 21? | SELL | 0.99 | $59.40 |
| 09-18 00:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on September 19? | SELL | 0.99 | $59.40 |
| 09-17 13:43 | Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on September 19? | BUY | 0.95 | $28.50 |
| 09-17 00:53 | Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on September 18? | SELL | 0.99 | $49.50 |
| 09-16 14:45 | Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 25°C or below on September 18? | SELL | 0.99 | $34.65 |
| 09-16 01:37 | Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? | SELL | 0.12 | $11.96 |