ElCapitan619
0x25e13526752149db5fb69562db85186cb8586735
- Realised P&L
- $-10.1k
- Volume
- $1.27M
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.055 | $4.2k | −$4.2k |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.031 | $1.2k | +$134.08 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.009 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.42 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET · Down | 0.283 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.91 |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance · Cabo Verde | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.89 |
| Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.32 |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$773.15at 0.230US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$103.56at 0.526Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
- +$93.83at 0.452Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
- +$63.54at 0.420Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
- +$63.00at 0.247U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 04:19 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.008 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 13:33 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.06 | $30.00 |
| 09-03 13:32 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.0084176025 | $32.23 |
| 09-03 12:56 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.06 | $75.00 |
| 09-03 12:55 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.0090074442 | $36.30 |
| 09-03 12:55 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.0100354267 | $31.16 |
| 09-03 12:54 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.011 | $11.00 |
| 09-03 12:52 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.0599999984 | $34.00 |
| 09-03 12:50 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.011 | $22.99 |
| 09-03 12:50 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.012 | $12.00 |
| 09-03 12:49 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.0599999968 | $17.00 |
| 09-03 12:48 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.013 | $14.30 |
| 09-03 12:48 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.014 | $2.80 |
| 09-03 12:47 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.059999999 | $55.00 |
| 09-03 12:46 | Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.014 | $16.80 |