yang4yu
0x25d02a049b43c1859ddcf268a0011520f0c4f1e9
- Realised P&L
- $-50.73
- Volume
- $30.5k
- Markets traded
- 181
- Open portfolio
- $198.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded181
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 14? · No | 0.996 | 0.998 | $198.32 | +$0.32 |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? · Yes | 0.813 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.24 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.973 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.18at 0.949Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?
- +$9.57at 0.940Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?
- +$5.57at 0.981US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
- +$5.18at 0.983US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
- +$4.65at 0.985US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 13:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.9963961231 | $198.00 |
| 10-11 13:46 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 11? | BUY | 0.9970250055 | $100.00 |
| 10-11 13:46 | Will the price of Solana be above $105 on October 11? | BUY | 0.997 | $97.00 |
| 10-08 11:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $147.00 |
| 10-08 11:57 | Will the price of Solana be above $125 on October 8? | BUY | 0.9981990417 | $50.00 |
| 10-06 14:18 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $96.00 |
| 10-06 14:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.994 | $100.00 |
| 10-05 07:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.997 | $196.00 |
| 10-04 10:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 4? | BUY | 0.998 | $195.00 |
| 10-03 13:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 3? | BUY | 0.9989999959 | $195.00 |
| 10-02 09:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 2? | BUY | 0.9979999978 | $195.00 |
| 10-01 13:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $195.00 |
| 09-30 13:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.9989999959 | $194.00 |
| 09-29 12:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9979999977 | $194.00 |
| 09-28 14:27 | Will the price of Solana be above $130 on September 28? | BUY | 0.9989999959 | $194.00 |