Cerco
0x25a74e4d0795b842a4e8e934620781e3c5f48b7c
- Realised P&L
- $-24.6k
- Volume
- $2.39M
- Markets traded
- 988
- Open portfolio
- $812.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded988
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.384 | 0.780 | $342.54 | +$174.08 |
| 1win FDV above $45M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.970 | 1.000 | $195.47 | +$5.77 |
| Will KAST launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.744 | 0.930 | $188.99 | +$37.71 |
| 1win FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.966 | 1.000 | $47.22 | +$1.61 |
| Will Trump say "Burger" in October? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.182 | $20.02 | +$8.54 |
| Will KAST launch a token by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.624 | 0.540 | $18.42 | −$2.86 |
| 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$1.42 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.920Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-01-23?
- +$1.4kat 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
- +$1.3kat 0.296Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
- +$1.3kat 0.944Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-19?
- +$902.91at 0.500Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 22:36 | Will Trump say "Burger" in October? | BUY | 0.148 | $1.48 |
| 11-01 21:03 | 1win FDV above $45M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.97 | $189.70 |
| 11-01 21:02 | 1win FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.968 | $440.02 |
| 11-01 21:01 | 1win FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.97 | $194.00 |
| 11-01 21:00 | 1win FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94145367 | $200.00 |
| 11-01 20:21 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $96.60 |
| 11-01 20:20 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $10.40 |
| 11-01 20:18 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.119760479 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 19:22 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3227226612 | $165.41 |
| 11-01 18:50 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.65 | $333.16 |
| 11-01 18:37 | 1win FDV above $70M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.52 | $84.01 |
| 11-01 02:16 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | SELL | 0.9790869266 | $653.95 |
| 11-01 01:59 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | BUY | 0.9799401276 | $654.52 |
| 11-01 01:50 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by December 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $965.30 |
| 11-01 01:24 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $24.91 |