AmagiBeires
0x259c795d86d4f64b1eaf4cd6a0c999e9588a7c55
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $143.3k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $10.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.027 | $6.38 | −$3.62 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.004 | $3.69 | −$6.31 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.62 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$196.55at 0.220Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$39.20at 0.050Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.026Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?
- +$-10.00at 0.043Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
- +$-10.00at 0.052 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 10:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.012 | $5.00 |
| 04-11 05:45 | Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? | BUY | 0.0187019185 | $9.02 |
| 03-09 07:42 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | BUY | 0.0524299813 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 07:40 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0244857982 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 07:39 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | BUY | 0.042999996 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 07:38 | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0122110772 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 07:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.0919999918 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 07:36 | Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0190000001 | $10.00 |
| 03-09 06:02 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | BUY | 0.0710946566 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 18:11 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? | BUY | 0.0423093156 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 18:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 18:07 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0161750714 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 18:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0282926802 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 18:07 | Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 18:06 | Will Iran strike Iraq in March? | BUY | 0.032520069 | $10.00 |