papoxia
0x255a83e69ab6c14d2e2f116283138f8e7afd8245
- Realised P&L
- $-16.49
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $15.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $12.87 | −$0.03 |
| Harvard vs. Brown · Harvard | 0.820 | 0.825 | $2.48 | +$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12? · No | 0.999 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 27? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 28? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.10at 0.959Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?
- +$1.96at 0.660Flyers vs. Panthers
- +$1.30at 0.974Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?
- +$0.29at 0.990Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?
- +$0.15at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 13:03 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.90 |
| 09-25 13:00 | Harvard vs. Brown | BUY | 0.82 | $2.46 |
| 08-01 04:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on August 1? | BUY | 0.998999962 | $15.40 |
| 06-07 12:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 05-28 12:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 05-23 01:54 | Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 05-17 08:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? | BUY | 0.9989999882 | $78.00 |
| 05-12 11:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $78.00 |
| 05-07 09:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.998999988 | $77.00 |
| 05-03 12:22 | Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m? | BUY | 0.998 | $77.00 |
| 04-26 06:56 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $77.00 |
| 04-23 10:45 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $76.99 |
| 04-17 12:09 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $76.98 |
| 04-14 08:26 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on April 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $76.99 |
| 04-09 11:05 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $76.99 |