0x25590b0Ab51d4C27e1D7eeC3a383Aeb4296f2032-1761754731394
0x25590b0ab51d4c27e1d7eec3a383aeb4296f2032
- Realised P&L
- $34.4k
- Volume
- $515.4k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.131 | $2.7k | −$29.41 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.065 | $1.0k | −$9.0k |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.184 | 0.065 | $576.85 | −$1.1k |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$103.00 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.424 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$193.00 |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.99 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.0kat 0.537Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$11.7kat 0.227US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$2.8kat 0.225Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?
- +$1.8kat 0.781Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$1.1kat 0.950Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 02:33 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.132 | $339.54 |
| 07-14 20:38 | France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.449999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 19:23 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3924999977 | $100.00 |
| 07-11 16:43 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2575 | $103.00 |
| 07-05 19:33 | Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 07-05 15:39 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2399999992 | $200.00 |
| 07-05 15:34 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.3099999991 | $200.00 |
| 06-26 20:00 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 19:26 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.0444178021 | $100.00 |
| 05-30 06:43 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $23.0k |
| 02-28 21:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.616412271 | $5.0k |
| 02-28 21:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.623455037 | $5.0k |
| 02-28 10:04 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1839146184 | $2.0k |
| 02-28 07:59 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $10.0k |
| 02-20 05:50 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $948.98 |