polimentor
0x25431371c8f411c1e9a9bc162e144a3f584bf49f
- Realised P&L
- $-794.14
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $99.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.525 | $78.25 | −$20.12 |
| Will 3jane launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.565 | $21.37 | −$0.57 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.205 | $0.20 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.01at 0.795Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in July?
- +$11.01at 0.420Will Gen.G Win the Shortest Game in LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4?
- +$10.30at 0.780Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?
- +$8.78at 0.654Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
- +$2.18at 0.760Will Michael Alfonso be the WI-07 Republican nominee?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 23:13 | Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026? | SELL | 0.2084360136 | $9.20 |
| 09-17 23:05 | Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $13.58 |
| 09-17 20:02 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $7.57 |
| 09-17 15:28 | Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k? | SELL | 0.63 | $95.72 |
| 09-16 15:45 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.18 |
| 09-15 04:15 | Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.20 |
| 09-14 20:14 | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.35 | $38.09 |
| 09-14 12:47 | Will Stanford have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | SELL | 0.63 | $4.57 |
| 09-14 12:33 | Will Stanford have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | SELL | 0.63 | $18.90 |
| 09-13 09:44 | Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6899226037 | $34.77 |
| 09-12 20:39 | Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 09-12 20:39 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? | SELL | 0.38 | $28.76 |
| 09-12 20:38 | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | SELL | 0.2113674279 | $15.46 |
| 09-12 05:59 | Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $6.53 |
| 09-11 14:55 | Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September? | SELL | 0.35 | $14.00 |