testingonly
0x2519b2ef826a9cde30e96d25325f8797370a9a98
- Realised P&L
- $-29.98
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $7.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.055 | $7.59 | −$7.70 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.16 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.61 |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers · Blazers | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.33 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$275.03at 0.052Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on July 25?
- +$55.08at 0.730Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP?
- +$52.63at 0.810Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16?
- +$49.26at 0.751Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
- +$44.20at 0.822Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-13 01:29 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2418818206 | $18.17 |
| 05-13 01:29 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $57.86 |
| 05-12 04:02 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 05-12 04:02 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $37.00 |
| 05-12 03:58 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $20.44 |
| 05-12 03:58 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $54.01 |
| 04-25 02:51 | Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.8179925701 | $202.54 |
| 04-25 02:51 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.1657650284 | $40.21 |
| 04-23 04:25 | Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | BUY | 0.1107963768 | $15.29 |
| 02-24 10:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.962 | $41.37 |
| 02-24 10:17 | Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.034 | $1.46 |
| 01-07 21:35 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9579066141 | $211.30 |
| 11-03 08:02 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.942 | $92.98 |
| 08-27 11:32 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.80 |
| 08-27 11:30 | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | BUY | 0.2 | $35.20 |