Kermit523
0x251873424b82377ca0f1e1eccbb381c95d6731ad
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $48.1k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.400Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.293Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.819Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
- +$511.37at 0.610Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
- +$250.93at 0.444Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 11:33 | Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.2710711206 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 11:30 | Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.274518344 | $94.35 |
| 07-13 11:28 | Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.2719038889 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 11:28 | Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.1744230042 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 11:27 | Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.1664520271 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 10:43 | Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.046617426 | $50.00 |
| 07-13 10:42 | Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.1363016585 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 10:41 | Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.0717966364 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 10:40 | Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.2386764094 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 10:38 | Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | BUY | 0.1974813388 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 05:00 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.2320636551 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 04:59 | UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | BUY | 0.9549999981 | $100.00 |
| 06-28 06:36 | Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | BUY | 0.3190428714 | $100.00 |
| 06-28 06:31 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $100.00 |
| 06-24 17:31 | Russia coup attempt in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |