0x250bbea1f7cc5fef647f2f77ddf65d7246908991
0x250bbea1f7cc5fef647f2f77ddf65d7246908991
- Realised P&L
- $2.88
- Volume
- $326.65
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $6.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.285 | $2.71 | +$0.71 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.285 | $0.95 | −$1.05 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.185 | $0.77 | −$0.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.10at 0.530Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?
- +$5.14at 0.280US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.45at 0.310US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 22:06 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 09:57 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 09:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 00:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 04:15 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 20:14 | Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 22:44 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 13:58 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6699999758 | $1.94 |
| 09-19 05:56 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 08:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 19:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 22:04 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 19:49 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.5889997126 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 23:19 | Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 09:56 | Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |