orientalwooden38
0x24ed23a5a3f3927682dc05aa0ad70142ab39e460
- Realised P&L
- $-3.63
- Volume
- $273.61
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $8.08
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · No | 0.955 | 0.953 | $2.56 | −$0.01 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.077 | $2.19 | −$0.13 |
| Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.041 | $1.63 | +$0.22 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? · Yes | 0.989 | 0.990 | $1.05 | +$0.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 18? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.006 | $0.64 | −$1.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.10at 0.967Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
- +$0.04at 0.971Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
- +$0.03at 0.987Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 4?
- +$0.03at 0.988Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$0.01at 0.993Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 August 24-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 14:38 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0819999998 | $2.32 |
| 09-15 14:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.13 |
| 09-15 14:27 | Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0349999994 | $1.41 |
| 09-15 14:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.9889999962 | $1.05 |
| 09-08 03:15 | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.9549999851 | $2.57 |
| 09-08 03:14 | Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.9879997096 | $2.15 |
| 09-08 03:13 | Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.31 |
| 09-03 04:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.0289999887 | $2.45 |
| 09-03 04:32 | Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | BUY | 0.9659999941 | $2.95 |
| 09-03 04:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 4? | BUY | 0.9859999409 | $2.57 |
| 08-29 02:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 August 24-30? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.10 |