0x24D0Ed51c882fe38c03B54E454B1A221f04A0028-1770682147189
0x24d0ed51c882fe38c03b54e454b1a221f04a0028
- Realised P&L
- $8.45
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $5.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.110 | $2.07 | +$0.15 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.840 | 0.895 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.350 | 0.305 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.006 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.045 | $0.43 | −$0.63 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.015 | 0.005 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.043 | $0.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? · No | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.35at 0.023Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$16.15at 0.156Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$12.39at 0.274Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
- +$4.04at 0.442Solana Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
- +$3.17at 0.505Solana Up or Down - March 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 17:36 | Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1019999545 | $1.92 |
| 08-20 17:23 | Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0090000001 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 17:21 | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.0149999854 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 01:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 01:34 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 18:35 | Will Trump say "Goat" in May? | BUY | 0.2349998284 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 18:35 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY | 0.0409999622 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 23:03 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.948 | $2.26 |
| 05-27 19:31 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 05-27 14:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.04 |
| 05-27 13:50 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | SELL | 0.045 | $1.05 |
| 05-26 23:22 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.0110085684 | $1.00 |
| 05-25 23:15 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | BUY | 0.0429999606 | $1.00 |
| 05-25 23:06 | Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? | BUY | 0.8099997261 | $2.10 |
| 05-25 22:32 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.48 |