mantequilla2
0x249c14e4a40f6bec73093ab16bd648df3163ca95
- Realised P&L
- $-56.68
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 200
- Open portfolio
- $8.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded200
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.50at 0.050Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17?
- +$4.21at 0.140Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 23?
- +$3.88at 0.120Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26?
- +$3.64at 0.361Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 2?
- +$2.00at 0.320Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 23:36 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:35 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:33 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 25? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:33 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on September 25? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:30 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 21:04 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0509999995 | $1.50 |
| 09-24 12:29 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on September 25? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.40 |
| 09-24 12:22 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on September 24? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.53 |
| 09-24 12:21 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on September 25? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.50 |
| 06-12 12:50 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.70 |
| 06-12 12:50 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.41 |
| 06-12 06:59 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.29 |