vesvegaa
0x249911a5640af8251e7666fc7a40794468aa96e6
- Realised P&L
- $-6.82
- Volume
- $50.7k
- Markets traded
- 133
- Open portfolio
- $65.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded133
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.886 | 0.967 | $16.36 | +$1.36 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.945 | 0.931 | $14.78 | −$0.22 |
| Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No | 0.958 | 0.947 | $11.86 | −$0.14 |
| Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026? · No | 0.925 | 0.920 | $9.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will GPT Sol 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.675 | $7.94 | −$2.06 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.837 | $4.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? · No | 0.943 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.41at 0.540Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
- +$2.12at 0.680Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
- +$2.10at 0.706Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
- +$1.93at 0.785Will France win on 2026-06-30?
- +$1.85at 0.765Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 16:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8859952677 | $15.00 |
| 09-25 16:02 | Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026? | BUY | 0.9250783542 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 16:02 | Will GPT Sol 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $10 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 16:00 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9579999992 | $12.00 |
| 08-29 15:26 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $11.00 |
| 08-29 15:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.945 | $15.00 |
| 08-29 15:26 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9429999777 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 16:03 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.9299999984 | $12.00 |
| 08-01 16:02 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.9649999981 | $13.00 |
| 08-01 16:01 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9689999994 | $11.00 |
| 08-01 16:01 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.90057062 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 16:00 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $12.00 |
| 07-17 08:32 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.8899999963 | $12.00 |
| 07-17 08:31 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | BUY | 0.9589999992 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 08:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? | BUY | 0.9659999998 | $11.00 |