0x2497af5c45c4222352cf3772e2c13ee2d63659d2
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $82.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.225 | $22.50 | −$3.50 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.055 | $18.33 | −$1.67 |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Maine? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $11.25 | −$3.74 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.115 | $5.75 | +$0.75 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: November · Something | 0.110 | 0.125 | $5.68 | +$0.68 |
| Nawrocki out by December 31? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.035 | $4.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.285 | $4.75 | −$0.25 |
| Tusk out by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.080 | $4.44 | −$0.56 |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.395 | $4.11 | −$0.89 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.003 | $0.14 | −$4.86 |
| Will Pau win? · No | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 23:33 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 23:32 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 23:30 | Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1? | BUY | 0.0879999997 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 23:26 | Will Pau win? | BUY | 0.0136896287 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 23:24 | Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 23:23 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 22:23 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Maine? | BUY | 0.002 | $15.00 |
| 11-01 22:11 | Nothing Ever Happens: November | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 22:02 | Nawrocki out by December 31? | BUY | 0.0364313789 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 22:01 | Tusk out by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 11-01 22:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0599999999 | $20.00 |
| 11-01 21:55 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $26.00 |