citra
0x246b6f2cf1eb3c74ab82b5d7288ef49baeed1196
- Realised P&L
- $18.8k
- Volume
- $760.8k
- Markets traded
- 229
- Open portfolio
- $13.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded229
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · Yes | 0.539 | 0.150 | $4.8k | −$12.5k |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.870 | 0.925 | $4.6k | +$275.00 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · Yes | 0.589 | 0.275 | $3.5k | −$4.0k |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.720 | 0.966 | $220.69 | +$56.12 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.2k |
| Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21? · Yes | 0.323 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Chirayu Rana sued? · No | 0.172 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$913.36 |
| Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? · Yes | 0.426 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.4kat 0.462Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$13.3kat 0.523Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$2.5kat 0.781Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.604Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
- +$2.2kat 0.453MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-15 15:38 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.77 | $1.5k |
| 08-04 22:53 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $74.29 |
| 08-04 22:52 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $36.59 |
| 08-04 22:52 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $25.35 |
| 08-04 22:41 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.6k |
| 08-04 22:11 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $16.10 |
| 08-04 22:10 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $779.01 |
| 08-04 22:08 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $32.28 |
| 08-04 22:07 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $337.69 |
| 07-29 08:43 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $1.9k |
| 07-17 00:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $0.16 |
| 07-11 01:20 | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? | SELL | 0.87 | $41.89 |
| 07-05 01:54 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $240.00 |
| 07-04 22:38 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $35.89 |
| 06-25 20:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.9k |