PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

haha0217

0x24556c9b1fb04f80c63a1926b133fcffce0b46a4

Realised P&L
$-76.81
Volume
$3.6k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$403.51

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration81.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · Yes0.3340.658$163.73+$80.73
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8400.945$94.50+$10.50
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? · Yes0.3700.775$77.50+$40.50
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes0.1301.000$55.43+$48.23
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · No0.7501.000$10.00+$2.50
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No0.4200.024$2.35$39.65
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00$17.00
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$7.00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00$14.00
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? · Yes0.4220.000$0.00$57.97
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00$21.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-11 03:29US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?SELL0.0509992757$6.43
03-11 03:28US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL0.300999026$90.30
03-06 08:48Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?SELL0.880538$88.05
03-02 03:44US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?SELL0.31$78.12
03-02 03:39US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?SELL0.12$12.00
03-01 05:48US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?BUY0.3968253968$200.00
03-01 05:46US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY0.24$24.00
03-01 05:45US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY0.64$192.00
03-01 05:44US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?BUY0.23$23.00
02-26 12:04Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?BUY0.43$12.90
02-26 12:00Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026?BUY0.07$7.00
02-26 11:53Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?BUY0.14$14.00
02-26 11:51Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?BUY0.17$17.00
02-26 11:26Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?BUY0.4$3.60
02-26 11:24Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?BUY0.21$21.00