haha0217
0x24556c9b1fb04f80c63a1926b133fcffce0b46a4
- Realised P&L
- $-76.81
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $403.51
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · Yes | 0.334 | 0.658 | $163.73 | +$80.73 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.945 | $94.50 | +$10.50 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.775 | $77.50 | +$40.50 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes | 0.130 | 1.000 | $55.43 | +$48.23 |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 1.000 | $10.00 | +$2.50 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No | 0.420 | 0.024 | $2.35 | −$39.65 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? · Yes | 0.422 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.97 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.05at 0.200Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- +$13.01at 0.070Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- +$2.57at 0.280Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$-9.00at 0.235US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
- +$-75.13at 0.397US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-11 03:29 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | SELL | 0.0509992757 | $6.43 |
| 03-11 03:28 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.300999026 | $90.30 |
| 03-06 08:48 | Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? | SELL | 0.880538 | $88.05 |
| 03-02 03:44 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | SELL | 0.31 | $78.12 |
| 03-02 03:39 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | SELL | 0.12 | $12.00 |
| 03-01 05:48 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.3968253968 | $200.00 |
| 03-01 05:46 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 03-01 05:45 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $192.00 |
| 03-01 05:44 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 02-26 12:04 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.43 | $12.90 |
| 02-26 12:00 | Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 02-26 11:53 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 02-26 11:51 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 02-26 11:26 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $3.60 |
| 02-26 11:24 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $21.00 |