0x244734c2fa024ae88b661b039f414ae4ca536ebd
0x244734c2fa024ae88b661b039f414ae4ca536ebd
- Realised P&L
- $-9.92
- Volume
- $188.83
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $4.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.295 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? · No | 0.750 | 0.986 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? · No | 0.800 | 0.760 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.620 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.019 | $0.08 | −$0.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$1.95at 0.512Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$1.86at 0.379Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.83at 0.359SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 05:16 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 05:16 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 05:16 | Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 19:52 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:39 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:06 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 13:41 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:21 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:41 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 05:17 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 21:37 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 17:34 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |