roe
0x243819d157203af633efdd0918d410508a3a2cfa
- Realised P&L
- $-4.39
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $11.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.955 | $10.51 | +$0.94 |
| Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.048 | $0.52 | −$0.38 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.18 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.23 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.55 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.44 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.90 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.13 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.44at 0.884Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
- +$0.25at 0.976Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15?
- +$0.21at 0.913Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
- +$0.20at 0.349Will the Republicans win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
- +$0.09at 0.982Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 08:47 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0050820443 | $4.24 |
| 10-29 08:47 | Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $3.59 |
| 10-29 08:47 | Will the Republicans win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $2.39 |
| 10-28 12:02 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.089 | $1.13 |
| 10-28 12:00 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0590773624 | $4.55 |
| 10-28 12:00 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $0.90 |
| 10-28 12:00 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.0407023321 | $3.18 |
| 10-28 12:00 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.0192637333 | $1.44 |
| 10-28 12:00 | Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.085 | $0.85 |
| 10-28 12:00 | Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.90422 | $9.04 |
| 10-18 09:51 | Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $3.65 |
| 10-18 09:47 | Will the Republicans win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.14 |
| 10-18 09:29 | Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $9.13 |
| 10-18 09:29 | Will the Democrats win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $9.13 |
| 10-18 09:29 | Will the Republicans win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.082 | $1.72 |