d23d3d
0x2413e282613eea16dc12c4079a34815eba5ff6c6
- Realised P&L
- $157.65
- Volume
- $22.8k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $371.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.815 | 0.865 | $371.51 | +$21.51 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$323.51at 0.292Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
- +$131.87at 0.808Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$105.80at 0.491Will Trump post "Gianni" or "Infantino" on Truth Social this week?
- +$103.35at 0.665Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
- +$93.14at 0.399Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 03:54 | Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9545206596 | $300.00 |
| 09-14 20:21 | Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998379898 | $91.98 |
| 09-14 16:09 | Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.8235122727 | $300.00 |
| 09-14 16:01 | Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.7669521309 | $50.00 |
| 09-11 15:02 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.9003527199 | $200.00 |
| 09-11 15:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $71.80 |
| 09-11 14:32 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7700914867 | $150.00 |
| 09-11 14:28 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.0057599086 | $5.12 |
| 09-11 14:24 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.3064219987 | $220.00 |
| 09-11 14:22 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 14:21 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $200.00 |
| 09-11 14:21 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.0115251633 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 16:35 | Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $224.84 |
| 09-08 10:57 | Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9935517241 | $288.13 |
| 09-04 14:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999915 | $100.00 |