0x240e7870c7891a13ded199351c8ed760f40c9f68
0x240e7870c7891a13ded199351c8ed760f40c9f68
- Realised P&L
- $-15.15
- Volume
- $712.22
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $12.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.50at 0.182Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$1.13at 0.470Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
- +$1.13at 0.470Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$0.89at 0.530US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
- +$0.80at 0.560Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 17:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 17:23 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 17:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.92 |
| 09-05 17:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.89 |
| 09-05 16:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 16:56 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 16:50 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.0569005363 | $2.33 |
| 07-13 12:34 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.048999954 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 12:34 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 07-13 12:25 | Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0485148074 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 20:52 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 20:51 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 17:49 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.138999892 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 17:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.019 | $0.17 |
| 07-05 19:19 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |