asd76400
0x2409afcfc2c2821f294f61ca2d24069bea76fbec
- Realised P&L
- $-558.67
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $799.09
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? · No | 0.717 | 1.000 | $477.24 | +$135.24 |
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? · Yes | 0.651 | 1.000 | $215.15 | +$75.15 |
| Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? · No | 0.930 | 1.000 | $75.27 | +$5.27 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.954 | $31.43 | +$1.43 |
| Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? · No | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
| Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? · Yes | 0.396 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$288.59 |
| Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$225.20 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET · Down | 0.463 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.20at 0.591Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
- +$-1.90at 0.420Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-18 20:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $9.72 |
| 02-18 20:23 | Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | BUY | 0.8545454465 | $100.00 |
| 02-15 13:01 | Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | BUY | 0.3350923645 | $57.00 |
| 02-15 13:00 | Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | BUY | 0.5926862513 | $20.00 |
| 02-04 14:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | BUY | 0.6481592113 | $9.74 |
| 02-04 13:59 | Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7699999935 | $20.00 |
| 02-04 13:59 | Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $20.00 |
| 02-04 13:58 | Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.4421061939 | $20.00 |
| 02-04 13:51 | Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | BUY | 0.6607444933 | $22.00 |
| 01-26 01:35 | Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | BUY | 0.9399999997 | $60.00 |
| 01-26 01:33 | Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.20 |
| 01-26 01:32 | Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | SELL | 0.5707376499 | $59.50 |
| 01-26 01:31 | Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 01-26 01:26 | Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 01-26 01:17 | Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | BUY | 0.6524720978 | $40.00 |