Clawsandshadows
0x24011faf065da587b702196fd88d1ffbffbd0753
- Realised P&L
- $-599.82
- Volume
- $29.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,467
- Open portfolio
- $30.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,467
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration10.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on September 18? · No | 0.760 | 0.805 | $5.29 | +$0.30 |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 18? · No | 0.780 | 0.805 | $5.15 | +$0.16 |
| Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on September 18? · No | 0.810 | 0.820 | $5.05 | +$0.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 19? · No | 0.740 | 0.730 | $4.92 | −$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 18? · No | 0.780 | 0.760 | $4.86 | −$0.13 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on September 19? · No | 0.710 | 0.690 | $4.85 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.61at 0.746Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?
- +$76.44at 0.269Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4?
- +$50.40at 0.321Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?
- +$36.37at 0.125Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 7?
- +$35.83at 0.444Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 03:04 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.6076371951 | $3.99 |
| 09-18 03:00 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C or below on September 18? | SELL | 0.57 | $3.95 |
| 09-18 00:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.7399999881 | $4.99 |
| 09-18 00:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.7099999602 | $4.99 |
| 09-17 23:39 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C or below on September 18? | BUY | 0.7199999538 | $4.99 |
| 09-17 23:37 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.67 | $5.86 |
| 09-17 13:13 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.57 | $4.99 |
| 09-17 13:12 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 18? | SELL | 0.61 | $4.06 |
| 09-17 11:41 | Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.99 |
| 09-17 11:40 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.75 | $4.79 |
| 09-17 11:40 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.87 | $5.49 |
| 09-17 09:37 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.7599999817 | $4.99 |
| 09-17 01:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.7599999817 | $4.99 |
| 09-17 01:05 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on September 17? | SELL | 0.66 | $4.01 |
| 09-16 21:31 | Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.8099999773 | $4.99 |