qwasd2
0x23f4d5eabf527e16baabc1bad06d33161ea337f2
- Realised P&L
- $53.74
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $167.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September? · No | 0.981 | 1.000 | $165.14 | +$3.14 |
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-38 House seat? · No | 0.920 | 0.995 | $1.83 | +$0.14 |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.897 | 0.074 | $0.13 | −$1.47 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals · St. Louis Cardinals | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets · New York Mets | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays · Tampa Bay Rays | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.543 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.90 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets · New York Mets | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.79at 0.726Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?
- +$3.52at 0.740Kristi Noem out by March 31?
- +$2.73at 0.527New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
- +$2.62at 0.790US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$2.62at 0.607Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 05:23 | Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.48 |
| 09-10 02:46 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September? | BUY | 0.9809999999 | $162.00 |
| 08-28 04:04 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $149.00 |
| 08-19 02:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on August 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.00 |
| 08-19 02:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on August 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 08-05 03:13 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.00 |
| 08-05 03:12 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-26 08:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 20-26? | BUY | 0.9989999828 | $55.00 |
| 07-26 08:18 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July? | BUY | 0.9969999893 | $53.00 |
| 07-26 08:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July? | BUY | 0.9979999898 | $55.00 |
| 07-04 06:14 | Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7199999988 | $117.71 |
| 06-23 06:17 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.6199999297 | $3.00 |
| 06-23 06:17 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 06-23 06:17 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 06-23 06:17 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals | BUY | 0.6 | $4.00 |