old-lan
0x23d7a1296d05398523beaf17ff564842a2390f30
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $244.9k
- Markets traded
- 1,091
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,091
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.469 | 0.375 | $1.6k | −$407.88 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.572 | 0.545 | $881.71 | −$44.07 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.537 | 0.455 | $665.74 | −$119.61 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.409 | 0.320 | $127.67 | −$35.61 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.785 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$777.99 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? · No | 0.856 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.750Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12PM ET
- +$432.53at 0.743Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
- +$403.51at 0.576Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
- +$401.09at 0.750Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
- +$367.13at 0.742Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 10:04 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.45 | $21.73 |
| 08-12 10:03 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4481818882 | $232.80 |
| 08-07 02:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 08-07 02:34 | Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 03:06 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland? | SELL | 0.999 | $37.59 |
| 07-12 02:13 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland? | BUY | 0.93 | $35.00 |
| 07-12 02:12 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 06-28 14:37 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.58 |
| 06-28 02:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.52 | $319.42 |
| 06-27 12:31 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5070096284 | $164.29 |
| 06-26 08:39 | Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5 | $8.64 |
| 06-06 09:46 | Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.49 | $90.77 |
| 06-06 09:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET | SELL | 0.85 | $5.24 |
| 06-06 09:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET | BUY | 0.15 | $4.95 |
| 06-06 09:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET | BUY | 0.2799999661 | $4.95 |