PredictionPuppy
0x23d1ef7c9e8e774db4e2b40b3021c9cd340e743a
- Realised P&L
- $-114.61
- Volume
- $39.7k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes | 0.374 | 0.140 | $831.14 | −$1.4k |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.456 | 0.285 | $632.02 | −$379.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$949.84at 0.394Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
- +$632.88at 0.437Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$227.25at 0.866Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
- +$171.88at 0.343Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
- +$146.08at 0.588Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 14:44 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $7.02 |
| 09-12 14:43 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $272.90 |
| 09-12 14:43 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | SELL | 0.0494487524 | $36.29 |
| 09-12 14:42 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $2.10 |
| 09-12 14:35 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.0054196286 | $15.17 |
| 09-12 14:35 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.0187257883 | $3.33 |
| 09-12 14:31 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $25.92 |
| 09-12 14:30 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.74 |
| 09-12 14:29 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | SELL | 0.9363253012 | $155.43 |
| 09-12 14:27 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.8199274916 | $1.9k |
| 09-12 14:24 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $426.41 |
| 09-12 14:22 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $300.80 |
| 06-24 21:57 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 06-10 22:40 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $23.36 |
| 06-10 22:40 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $40.59 |