circle218
0x23bb158c4afc4cfbd7f06d856cafdf2b970d1f72
- Realised P&L
- $-275.02
- Volume
- $57.0k
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $53.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.990 | 0.992 | $21.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $13.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 7? · No | 0.997 | 0.997 | $10.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.981 | 0.975 | $9.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.44at 0.420Knicks vs. Heat
- +$1.46at 0.932Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$1.29at 0.956Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$1.21at 0.870Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
- +$1.07at 0.560Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 08:26 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 7? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.00 |
| 10-06 08:25 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.996 | $13.00 |
| 10-06 08:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.99 | $21.00 |
| 09-20 03:27 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September? | BUY | 0.995999922 | $7.00 |
| 09-20 03:26 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 02:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.00 |
| 08-02 02:59 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds | BUY | 0.9809999961 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 02:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.00 |
| 07-26 03:56 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.996 | $10.00 |
| 07-05 02:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9919998909 | $8.00 |
| 07-05 02:42 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 6? | BUY | 0.9869999996 | $10.00 |
| 06-25 08:58 | Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9829999998 | $8.00 |
| 06-25 08:57 | Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9739997097 | $3.00 |
| 06-25 08:56 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? | BUY | 0.9399999906 | $4.00 |
| 06-08 04:50 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on June 9? | BUY | 0.9609999998 | $25.00 |