0x239C8CB9fB15Dc198D5418D00997E08c384D2852-1734251679152
0x239c8cb9fb15dc198d5418d00997e08c384d2852
- Realised P&L
- $33.23
- Volume
- $10.5k
- Markets traded
- 190
- Open portfolio
- $91.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded190
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 18? · No | 0.994 | 0.993 | $27.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $27.34 | +$0.04 |
| Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $15.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 12-18? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $10.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $9.92 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.93at 0.610Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$0.30at 0.993Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?
- +$0.19at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22?
- +$0.19at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
- +$0.18at 0.994Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 07:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.00 |
| 10-15 23:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 18? | BUY | 0.994 | $28.00 |
| 10-13 01:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.9978279599 | $29.00 |
| 10-11 08:22 | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $21.00 |
| 10-07 02:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.9973535487 | $40.90 |
| 10-03 23:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9969999817 | $22.00 |
| 10-03 22:49 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $29.20 |
| 09-30 22:34 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999314 | $13.00 |
| 09-28 02:31 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.995 | $25.00 |
| 09-26 23:20 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.994 | $25.10 |
| 09-23 23:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 23? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 12:52 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.9939999982 | $28.30 |
| 09-21 05:08 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.00 |
| 09-18 01:47 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.80 |
| 09-13 13:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 14? | BUY | 0.997 | $36.60 |