-wraith-
0x238de8597e51b9821795ec9660937246c75870d8
- Realised P&L
- $-11.9k
- Volume
- $152.0k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $37.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? · No | 0.775 | 0.939 | $16.6k | +$2.9k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.945 | $12.9k | +$476.00 |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.974 | $5.7k | +$1.1k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.693 | 0.715 | $2.4k | +$73.50 |
| Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.895 | $382.51 | +$61.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.879Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.7kat 0.812Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- +$176.48at 0.862Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
- +$154.28at 0.981Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
- +$100.00at 0.900US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 18:06 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $1.3k |
| 10-25 14:55 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | BUY | 0.862125 | $1.1k |
| 10-21 18:55 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.66 | $990.00 |
| 10-15 01:32 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $2.4k |
| 10-09 15:58 | Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $320.53 |
| 10-09 15:41 | Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | BUY | 0.9799742178 | $887.91 |
| 10-09 15:26 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.0k |
| 10-09 15:11 | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.4k |
| 10-05 15:05 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.2k |
| 10-05 15:01 | Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | BUY | 0.78383002 | $3.9k |
| 09-15 18:50 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.965 | $525.36 |
| 08-28 18:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.58 | $6.38 |
| 08-28 18:48 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.8k |
| 08-21 22:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.63 | $6.30 |
| 08-21 22:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.63 | $2.0k |