eventedge212
0x238bcec6e519f641d4bb62a9ceea477637e5c4f6
- Realised P&L
- $-23.88
- Volume
- $720.71
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $2.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 5? · No | 0.420 | 0.490 | $2.45 | +$0.35 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET · Up | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET · Down | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.25at 0.476Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
- +$4.60at 0.477Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
- +$3.84at 0.517Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
- +$3.33at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
- +$2.21at 0.695Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 11:57 | Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on October 5? | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 10-01 17:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | SELL | 0.54 | $2.76 |
| 10-01 17:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4299999218 | $2.20 |
| 09-26 22:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $2.10 |
| 09-26 19:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET | BUY | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 09-26 04:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET | SELL | 0.23 | $1.25 |
| 09-26 04:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET | BUY | 0.2299999834 | $1.25 |
| 09-25 17:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | SELL | 0.69 | $3.50 |
| 09-25 17:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999921 | $3.45 |
| 09-25 16:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | SELL | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-25 16:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 09-25 03:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | SELL | 0.76 | $3.85 |
| 09-25 03:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | BUY | 0.6799999921 | $3.45 |
| 09-25 01:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET | SELL | 0.73 | $3.69 |
| 09-25 01:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET | BUY | 0.7699999645 | $3.90 |