Akolakowski
0x237e3e85b8fc5e4167df0ffb091c5e4db64e42b2
- Realised P&L
- $74.66
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 221
- Open portfolio
- $28.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded221
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.692 | 0.950 | $28.84 | +$7.84 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 21? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 6? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.20at 0.608Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 31?
- +$14.52at 0.481Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 31?
- +$13.80at 0.639Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 6?
- +$13.00at 0.534Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 17?
- +$10.60at 0.358Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 02:01 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.675 | $6.75 |
| 09-23 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 09-23 02:01 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.48 | $3.19 |
| 09-22 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.5 | $4.82 |
| 09-22 02:01 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 09-21 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 09-20 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.08 |
| 09-20 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 02:01 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.4202534113 | $2.16 |
| 09-19 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.55 | $6.55 |
| 09-18 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.90 |
| 09-18 02:01 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.65 | $4.15 |
| 09-17 11:47 | Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 12:03 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on September 16? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.12 |