0x234
0x2375550d3b98ce364476c81f663a0b878cb0691f
- Realised P&L
- $23.6k
- Volume
- $1.40M
- Markets traded
- 1,964
- Open portfolio
- $443.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,964
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.5kat 0.091Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$5.7kat 0.272Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$2.9kat 0.030Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?
- +$2.3kat 0.610Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
- +$2.0kat 0.720Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 19:46 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.022 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 19:46 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.022 | $5.39 |
| 08-03 19:45 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.022 | $4.07 |
| 08-03 19:35 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.022 | $3.52 |
| 08-03 17:17 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during his Executive Order signing? | BUY | 0.76 | $36.48 |
| 08-03 16:40 | Will Trump say "Oil", "Gas", or "Gasoline" during his Executive Order signing? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 16:33 | Will Trump say "Tariff" during his Executive Order signing? | BUY | 0.42 | $7.14 |
| 08-02 06:45 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.29 | $2.32 |
| 08-01 17:48 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.48 |
| 07-31 16:09 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.051 | $5.10 |
| 07-31 11:33 | Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.086 | $3.44 |
| 07-29 19:14 | Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.93 | $7.44 |
| 07-29 19:14 | Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 07-29 19:14 | Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.919999996 | $9.30 |
| 07-29 19:03 | Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.26 |