gamblingisgud
0x234ceb65a1507e2ecd34b4754b89acbb160e6a55
- Realised P&L
- $-92.08
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $15.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.045 | $9.78 | −$40.22 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.055 | $5.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.26at 0.470Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
- +$1.99at 0.810US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$1.18at 0.620Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
- +$0.47at 0.810Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
- +$-2.00at 0.430Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 02:41 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 10:08 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.989 | $10.99 |
| 03-25 10:18 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.809999991 | $9.00 |
| 03-18 04:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4699998919 | $1.94 |
| 03-18 04:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET | BUY | 0.8099999554 | $1.98 |
| 03-18 02:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $1.94 |
| 03-18 01:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET | BUY | 0.459999885 | $1.94 |
| 03-18 01:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $3.15 |
| 03-18 01:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET | BUY | 0.619999969 | $1.94 |
| 01-18 01:57 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 01-18 01:56 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.013 | $5.00 |
| 01-07 22:46 | Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? | BUY | 0.6099999988 | $25.00 |
| 01-07 22:39 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999968 | $50.00 |
| 01-07 22:37 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0510903985 | $9.27 |