StevenRoberts5503
0x234abe6966310113489d4dfd767d400ebe91cbff
- Realised P&L
- $-913.97
- Volume
- $127.4k
- Markets traded
- 119
- Open portfolio
- $88.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded119
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? · No | 0.620 | 1.000 | $39.00 | +$14.82 |
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? · Yes | 0.800 | 1.000 | $30.00 | +$6.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.956 | $14.34 | +$1.29 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.160 | $4.80 | −$0.60 |
| OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$205.70at 0.780Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$193.16at 0.120Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- +$166.08at 0.520Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 9 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?
- +$127.92at 0.760Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketball
- +$110.52at 0.300Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 05:04 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.43 | $4.73 |
| 04-27 08:29 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 04-27 08:28 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.23 | $118.22 |
| 04-27 08:26 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.23 | $126.50 |
| 04-27 08:25 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.22 | $126.28 |
| 04-27 08:23 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.22 | $44.88 |
| 04-21 04:47 | Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.21 |
| 04-13 04:03 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.798 | $122.09 |
| 04-12 08:50 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.57 | $214.89 |
| 04-10 17:39 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.859 | $131.43 |
| 04-09 22:29 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.69 | $69.00 |
| 04-09 14:40 | Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.861 | $462.36 |
| 04-08 15:30 | Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.19 | $400.14 |
| 04-07 17:42 | Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $467.19 |
| 04-07 16:12 | Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | BUY | 0.62 | $326.74 |