maxima46
0x233f86afe3ecf098fbaef9f5d56b41dab78ebc63
- Realised P&L
- $70.43
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $1.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 85 km/h or below in October? · No | 0.990 | 0.865 | $1.74 | −$0.25 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 13? · No | 0.460 | 0.004 | $0.13 | −$12.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.51at 0.005Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 11?
- +$8.38at 0.156Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on September 29?
- +$4.19at 0.808Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on September 24?
- +$3.57at 0.280Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on September 29?
- +$1.51at 0.765Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 8?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 09:08 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.4297833632 | $9.92 |
| 10-12 03:53 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on October 11? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.45 |
| 10-11 06:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on October 10? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.99 |
| 10-10 06:35 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on October 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.86 |
| 10-10 06:35 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.85 |
| 10-10 06:35 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 10? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.16 |
| 10-10 01:43 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.847999983 | $4.39 |
| 10-10 01:38 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.8459999969 | $4.96 |
| 10-09 23:21 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on October 10? | BUY | 0.843999983 | $4.96 |
| 10-09 22:55 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 9? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.83 |
| 10-09 21:43 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on October 9? | BUY | 0.8489999855 | $4.96 |
| 10-08 06:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.99 |
| 10-08 06:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 8? | SELL | 0.999 | $6.59 |
| 10-08 00:01 | Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.7559999745 | $4.99 |
| 10-07 15:17 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 7? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.08 |