ARbtk
0x23165c5a0a657335155d41c1a86e5dcbf5f8a0e8
- Realised P&L
- $2.36
- Volume
- $948.20
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration73.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.915 | $954.90 | +$46.90 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.255 | $286.50 | −$13.50 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.525 | $105.00 | +$5.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.420 | $100.00 | +$0.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.735 | $99.32 | −$0.68 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.715 | $99.31 | −$0.69 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.355 | $98.61 | −$1.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.47at 0.986US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
- +$1.94at 0.996US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
- +$0.41at 0.987Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on October 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7199999994 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 12:10 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.2612524828 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 11:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999999 | $200.00 |
| 11-01 11:51 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | BUY | 0.7399999988 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 11:49 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 11:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | BUY | 0.4199999984 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 11:44 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.3599999997 | $100.00 |
| 11-01 10:11 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.88 | $462.00 |
| 10-31 17:04 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.86 | $446.00 |
| 10-28 11:14 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.986 | $455.37 |
| 10-27 11:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.9969999949 | $31.00 |
| 10-26 13:57 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.9959999981 | $345.01 |
| 10-25 15:54 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.9939999966 | $77.00 |
| 10-25 15:16 | Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on October 26? | BUY | 0.9867945045 | $31.00 |