Agnost2
0x230402cd8f6b6ec23d65f4866b229207386124bf
- Realised P&L
- $-508.10
- Volume
- $433.7k
- Markets traded
- 650
- Open portfolio
- $249.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded650
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on September 28? · No | 0.997 | 0.994 | $110.33 | −$0.34 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on September 28? · No | 0.971 | 0.993 | $49.65 | +$1.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on September 28? · No | 0.919 | 0.960 | $48.00 | +$2.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 28? · No | 0.990 | 0.985 | $41.38 | −$0.23 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on September 8? · No | 0.997 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16? · No | 0.970 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.92 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 14? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$115.62at 0.951Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 1?
- +$88.92at 0.964Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 30?
- +$81.76at 0.955Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 2?
- +$48.97at 0.967Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 23?
- +$48.47at 0.982Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 19:35 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.99 | $41.61 |
| 09-27 19:35 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on September 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.98 |
| 09-27 19:35 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 09-27 19:34 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.971 | $48.55 |
| 09-25 20:05 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $48.63 |
| 09-25 20:04 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $299.40 |
| 09-25 20:03 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.997 | $312.98 |
| 09-18 02:52 | Lions vs. Bills: O/U 58.5 | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 02:12 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.20 |
| 09-18 02:11 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on September 18? | BUY | 0.97 | $31.86 |
| 09-18 02:10 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.10 |
| 09-18 02:10 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.60 |
| 09-17 03:22 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 09-17 03:21 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or higher on September 17? | BUY | 0.98 | $9.79 |
| 09-17 03:20 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.95 |