0x22fa000a404b70df396193f47cf92567ed556b7e
- Realised P&L
- $-3.81
- Volume
- $612.00
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $55.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.948 | 0.964 | $15.42 | +$0.26 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.942 | 0.971 | $13.59 | +$0.41 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.504 | 0.912 | $6.39 | +$2.86 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $4.81 | −$1.85 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.958 | $4.79 | +$0.29 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.895 | $4.47 | +$0.33 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.920 | $3.68 | +$0.88 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.223 | 0.080 | $1.04 | −$1.86 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.105 | $0.63 | −$2.37 |
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.024 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.085 | $0.17 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.40at 0.300Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.92at 0.500Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
- +$0.79at 0.740Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.04at 0.997Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
- +$0.00at 0.027Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 09:46 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $8.01 |
| 07-12 14:56 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $2.03 |
| 07-08 01:26 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.903 | $6.32 |
| 07-05 10:53 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.08 |
| 07-05 03:31 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.948 | $15.17 |
| 06-21 02:36 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 06-17 04:15 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 06-13 10:20 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.60 |
| 06-07 15:57 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 06-04 08:16 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $4.07 |
| 06-01 13:59 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.942 | $13.19 |
| 06-01 13:58 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.504 | $3.53 |
| 05-25 07:31 | Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 04-26 10:03 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.907 | $9.07 |
| 04-11 17:16 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $13.32 |