ESC2026AP
0x22f6336f57c38e7a40afb51471e5c7cb70830d1f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $14.7k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $48.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.180 | $18.85 | +$7.33 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · No | 0.036 | 0.015 | $16.88 | −$21.96 |
| Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.100 | $12.04 | +$2.10 |
| Will Poland win Junior Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.145 | $0.30 | +$0.16 |
| Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027? · No | 0.273 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$157.23 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$987.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.356Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027?
- +$152.98at 0.037Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
- +$14.59at 0.070Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
- +$-0.98at 0.050Will Noëp win Eesti Laul 2026?
- +$-1.30at 0.130Will Emilija win Supernova 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:00 | Will Georgia win Junior Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.55 |
| 09-16 14:37 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.23 |
| 09-14 21:39 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.033 | $5.29 |
| 09-14 21:37 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.034 | $1.13 |
| 09-13 18:26 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.037 | $11.10 |
| 09-13 18:25 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.037 | $7.40 |
| 09-13 18:23 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.14 |
| 09-13 18:21 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.037 | $11.10 |
| 09-13 18:16 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.036 | $0.54 |
| 08-13 04:12 | Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 08-13 02:04 | Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $16.00 |
| 08-13 02:04 | Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $32.96 |
| 08-13 01:56 | Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $5.04 |
| 08-12 21:39 | Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.286 | $5.72 |
| 08-12 21:26 | Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |