lugeweb3
0x22cd689337291e8f9ee21d01bff1727340d68715
- Realised P&L
- $333.59
- Volume
- $311.2k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.814 | $569.80 | −$39.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.708 | 0.700 | $420.00 | −$5.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.625 | $125.00 | −$9.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.815 | $81.50 | +$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$329.94at 0.365Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?
- +$192.22at 0.959Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?
- +$67.36at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
- +$49.74at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?
- +$36.43at 0.980Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-15 10:57 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.871 | $52.26 |
| 08-15 10:54 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.889 | $53.34 |
| 03-31 07:58 | EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $66.96 |
| 03-20 08:47 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.958 | $94.84 |
| 03-20 08:45 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.959 | $1.3k |
| 03-20 08:44 | Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.958 | $95.80 |
| 03-20 08:39 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.7k |
| 03-20 08:37 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.979 | $38.18 |
| 03-19 12:11 | Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $838.29 |
| 03-18 15:40 | Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.995 | $620.36 |
| 03-18 10:58 | Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.8k |
| 03-18 10:55 | Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.0k |
| 03-13 01:59 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $29.49 |
| 03-12 03:56 | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $67.3k |
| 03-11 14:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $259.74 |