0x228D89152Bb53D94637DC938034562E79f2aE064-1769125664904
0x228d89152bb53d94637dc938034562e79f2ae064
- Realised P&L
- $149.34
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $45.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.691 | 0.639 | $37.02 | −$2.98 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $3.44 | −$6.56 |
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.785 | $2.91 | +$1.91 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.065 | $2.32 | −$7.68 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.58at 0.353Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?
- +$75.77at 0.080Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$40.05at 0.070Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%?
- +$26.90at 0.891Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.50at 0.800US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 18:47 | Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 18:37 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.690999996 | $40.00 |
| 07-29 18:34 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.0270000008 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 18:32 | Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday? | BUY | 0.0270000008 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 20:21 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.053614152 | $20.00 |
| 07-14 19:24 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2519999917 | $20.00 |
| 07-09 07:12 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.256 | $115.19 |
| 06-26 21:40 | Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0509999953 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 21:21 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.915 | $70.58 |
| 06-12 06:52 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8879999998 | $274.01 |
| 03-24 00:06 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 03-13 15:34 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.2099999922 | $20.00 |
| 02-18 17:33 | Will John Oliver say "Government" 3+ times on Last Week Tonight? | BUY | 0.0809999558 | $1.66 |
| 02-13 21:38 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $10.00 |
| 02-12 21:56 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |