ifYouDont
0x228765aa09466723f57e6f495a651a7f22a8f167
- Realised P&L
- $-33.71
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $30.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 3? · No | 0.720 | 0.755 | $15.10 | +$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on November 3? · No | 0.650 | 0.555 | $11.10 | −$1.90 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 3? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.245 | $2.71 | −$0.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 3? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.385 | $1.53 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.37at 0.326Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$2.56at 0.497Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$2.16at 0.560Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
- +$0.98at 0.740Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
- +$0.60at 0.629Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-15 15:26 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | SELL | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 08-15 15:26 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 07-20 06:14 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | SELL | 0.993 | $4.96 |
| 07-19 17:28 | Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 07-19 15:01 | Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 07-19 15:01 | Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | BUY | 0.12 | $1.08 |
| 07-15 16:52 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? | BUY | 0.315 | $1.57 |
| 07-15 16:45 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 00:05 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5749998994 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 20:52 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.9024999323 | $1.00 |
| 07-10 19:40 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.8924999509 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 13:37 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.024 | $0.12 |
| 07-07 18:22 | Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 18:11 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 16:18 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.4899999784 | $2.50 |