DontCryMontreal
0x227d3f89ce08623908d6385436b1304b9fd1901a
- Realised P&L
- $-423.42
- Volume
- $125.9k
- Markets traded
- 740
- Open portfolio
- $10.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded740
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$253.96at 0.365Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?
- +$236.01at 0.054Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?
- +$194.00at 0.030Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season?
- +$186.65at 0.339Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?
- +$184.73at 0.161Will ExxonMobil (XOM) Q2 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.5M?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 18:26 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be 1,200,000 or more? | BUY | 0.98 | $32.40 |
| 11-02 18:26 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be 1,200,000 or more? | BUY | 0.97 | $34.92 |
| 11-02 18:26 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be 1,200,000 or more? | BUY | 0.913 | $63.91 |
| 11-02 18:25 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 900,000 and 1,000,000? | BUY | 0.9766544025 | $116.80 |
| 11-02 18:25 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 800,000 and 900,000? | BUY | 0.9739269817 | $177.66 |
| 11-02 18:09 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be 720,000 or more? | BUY | 0.9803720238 | $39.53 |
| 11-02 15:22 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 460,000 and 490,000? | BUY | 0.9931951697 | $91.29 |
| 11-02 15:22 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 430,000 and 460,000? | BUY | 0.9807120743 | $63.35 |
| 11-02 14:37 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Colorado be between 2,250,000 and 2,400,000? | SELL | 0.94 | $0.62 |
| 10-31 19:55 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be less than 3,250,000? | BUY | 0.9527682716 | $49.67 |
| 10-31 19:44 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 370,000 and 400,000? | BUY | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 10-31 19:44 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 340,000 and 370,000? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 10-31 19:42 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 370,000 and 400,000? | BUY | 0.228725 | $9.15 |
| 10-31 19:41 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 340,000 and 370,000? | BUY | 0.188 | $7.52 |
| 10-30 12:34 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 6,000,000 and 6,500,000? | BUY | 0.949 | $56.94 |