biddden
0x2278f89c84a2559d7cc59b2e5b9feb2e128f5c68
- Realised P&L
- $44.30
- Volume
- $120.2k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $374.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.906 | 0.963 | $155.73 | +$9.13 |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.996 | 0.995 | $149.25 | −$0.15 |
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? · No | 0.965 | 0.938 | $24.58 | −$0.71 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.773 | 0.775 | $23.26 | +$0.08 |
| Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.979 | $21.53 | +$0.09 |
| Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$0.50 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.001 | $0.04 | −$0.78 |
| Will Solana dip to $80 in July? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.72at 0.210Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$14.45at 0.890Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?
- +$13.26at 0.005Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$9.35at 0.830Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$9.05at 0.005Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 14:07 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.996 | $149.40 |
| 09-17 14:04 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.7728329443 | $23.18 |
| 09-17 14:04 | Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9745618182 | $21.44 |
| 09-17 14:03 | Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.965 | $25.28 |
| 06-13 08:47 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9759166667 | $58.56 |
| 06-13 08:47 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $53.89 |
| 06-13 08:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | BUY | 0.992 | $56.54 |
| 05-19 06:33 | Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $53.76 |
| 05-07 02:19 | Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $54.31 |
| 05-07 02:18 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | BUY | 0.966 | $35.25 |
| 05-07 02:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.979 | $97.90 |
| 05-07 02:17 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.75 |
| 04-21 14:34 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $68.70 |
| 04-09 09:27 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.009 | $78.87 |
| 04-04 14:28 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.007 | $56.59 |