Dafdafv66
0x226ac79bb628b4d83c05570af03445e389996411
- Realised P&L
- $4.6k
- Volume
- $377.1k
- Markets traded
- 223
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded223
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No | 0.884 | 0.885 | $708.37 | +$0.54 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.873 | 0.880 | $668.78 | +$5.30 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? · No | 0.778 | 0.725 | $379.78 | −$27.78 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? · No | 0.967 | 0.982 | $294.45 | +$4.35 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? · No | 0.854 | 0.976 | $245.99 | +$30.61 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? · No | 0.914 | 0.984 | $231.12 | +$16.33 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? · No | 0.907 | 0.835 | $225.45 | −$19.45 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August? · No | 0.892 | 0.725 | $203.00 | −$46.70 |
| Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.535 | $80.25 | −$15.75 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? · No | 0.918 | 0.956 | $65.64 | +$2.59 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.052Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
- +$980.77at 0.359Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
- +$900.19at 0.131Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
- +$810.39at 0.880Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
- +$685.92at 0.381Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 11:49 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? | BUY | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 08-04 11:47 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 08-03 16:03 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 08-03 16:00 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $54.00 |
| 08-02 23:41 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $25.49 |
| 08-02 23:34 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.00 |
| 08-02 23:06 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? | BUY | 0.88 | $7.66 |
| 08-02 23:06 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 08-02 23:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 08-01 17:51 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $519.64 |
| 08-01 17:51 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $90.55 |
| 08-01 17:50 | Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $871.34 |
| 08-01 17:50 | Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $309.26 |
| 07-30 00:00 | Will BNB reach $600 in July? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 07-30 00:00 | Will BNB reach $600 in July? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |