lucky57
0x224bfc57d15ffc81b6639d8f11303628bcc4b294
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $3.85M
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.979 | 0.980 | $5.4k | +$0.21 |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $5.00 | −$65.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET · Up | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET · Up | 0.892 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.51 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$206.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$91.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Who will win the gold medal in Women's Skateboard Vert at X Games New Orleans 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$497.92at 0.549Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$372.62at 0.008Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$255.85at 0.800Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?
- +$217.22at 0.870Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$174.44at 0.880Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 01:43 | Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5 | $225.42 |
| 09-27 01:32 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.3k |
| 08-14 03:08 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.952 | $100.00 |
| 08-14 03:07 | Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5899999999 | $266.00 |
| 08-08 06:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 08-08 06:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 08-08 02:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | SELL | 0.485 | $19.40 |
| 08-08 01:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | SELL | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 08-08 00:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET | SELL | 0.46 | $19.59 |
| 08-07 11:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.007 | $0.03 |
| 08-07 11:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.007 | $0.35 |
| 08-07 10:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.03 | $0.91 |
| 08-07 10:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | BUY | 0.93 | $5.21 |
| 08-01 01:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | SELL | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 01:01 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.8181475 | $163.63 |